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Understanding Hurricane Forecasts & Impacts
1
Consider all Hazards
2
Focus on Potential Impacts
3
Use the NHC Forecast
4
Beware Unreliable Sources
5
Dangers Remain After
6
All Storms are Different
Consider all Hazards When Preparing for Hurricanes
Focus on Potential Impacts
Use the Official National Hurricane Center Forecast
Beware Unreliable Sources
Hurricane Dangers Remain Even After the Skies Turn Blue
All Storms are Different
Don't Let Past Experience Dictate Your Planning
Consider All Hazards
- Nearly 90% of all hurricane-related deaths involve water: storm surge, inland flooding, rip currents/rough surf
- Hurricanes can also spawn tornadoes, even in the outer bands far from the center
- Hazardous conditions can occur well ahead and well after a hurricane's arrival
Focus on Potential Impacts
- Impacts can be felt far from the storm's center, even well inland and outside the "Cone of Uncertainty"
- Do not focus on a specific storm category; all hurricanes and tropical storms can bring life-threatening storm surge, inland flooding, and damaging winds
- Avoid using terms such as "downgraded" as a hurricane makes landfall — impacts often continue even when the storm winds decrease
Use the Latest NHC Forecast
- Hurricane specialists at the NHC access a variety of data (models, aircraft, satellite) to make the most accurate forecasts possible
- Meteorologists at local NWS offices understand which locations in your area are most vulnerable to storm surge, flooding, and wind as these hazards reach your area
- Avoid treating or posting model guidance as a forecast, especially a model that is significantly different from others or models that extend beyond the official 5-day forecast
Check Reliable Sources
- Rely on official NWS forecasts and well-established media partners in the Weather Enterprise
- Be cautious of sensational headlines and instead look for reliable sources to determine a storm's potential impacts
- Have multiple ways to receive evacuation orders and lifesaving warnings
Dangers Remain Even After the Skies Turn Blue
- Avoid walking through floodwaters as they may contain pollution, debris, and dangerous wildlife
- Check on elderly neighbors and avoid heat exhaustion or dehydration during the clean up phase
- Beware of downed power lines and always follow the manufacturer's instructions when using generators to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning
All Storms are Different
- Impacts can be much worse for some hurricanes compared to others, even of similar strength, due to differences in landfall location, size, and forward speed
- The storm's scale only tells you about the strongest winds near the center of the storm and does not tell you about potentially life-threatening flooding from rain or storm surge
- Stay informed of the latest forecasts as changes in track, intensity, and landfall location can result in changes in potential impacts
Page 1 of 6
Consider all Hazards When Preparing for Hurricanes
Consider All Hazards
- Nearly 90% of all hurricane-related deaths involve water: storm surge, inland flooding, rip currents/rough surf
- Hurricanes can also spawn tornadoes, even in the outer bands far from the center
- Hazardous conditions can occur well ahead and well after a hurricane's arrival
Page 2 of 6
Focus on Potential Impacts
Focus on Potential Impacts
- Impacts can be felt far from the storm's center, even well inland and outside the "Cone of Uncertainty"
- Do not focus on a specific storm category; all hurricanes and tropical storms can bring life-threatening storm surge, inland flooding, and damaging winds
- Avoid using terms such as "downgraded" as a hurricane makes landfall — impacts often continue even when the storm winds decrease
Page 3 of 6
Use the Official National Hurricane Center Forecast
Use the Latest NHC Forecast
- Hurricane specialists at the NHC access a variety of data (models, aircraft, satellite) to make the most accurate forecasts possible
- Meteorologists at local NWS offices understand which locations in your area are most vulnerable to storm surge, flooding, and wind as these hazards reach your area
- Avoid treating or posting model guidance as a forecast, especially a model that is significantly different from others or models that extend beyond the official 5-day forecast
Page 4 of 6
Beware Unreliable Sources
Check Reliable Sources
- Rely on official NWS forecasts and well-established media partners in the Weather Enterprise
- Be cautious of sensational headlines and instead look for reliable sources to determine a storm's potential impacts
- Have multiple ways to receive evacuation orders and lifesaving warnings
Page 5 of 6
Hurricane Dangers Remain Even After the Skies Turn Blue
Dangers Remain Even After the Skies Turn Blue
- Avoid walking through floodwaters as they may contain pollution, debris, and dangerous wildlife
- Check on elderly neighbors and avoid heat exhaustion or dehydration during the clean up phase
- Beware of downed power lines and always follow the manufacturer's instructions when using generators to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning
Page 6 of 6
All Storms are Different
Don't Let Past Experience Dictate Your Planning
All Storms are Different
- Impacts can be much worse for some hurricanes compared to others, even of similar strength, due to differences in landfall location, size, and forward speed
- The storm's scale only tells you about the strongest winds near the center of the storm and does not tell you about potentially life-threatening flooding from rain or storm surge
- Stay informed of the latest forecasts as changes in track, intensity, and landfall location can result in changes in potential impacts