Integrating Environmental, Urban and Human Resilience for Coastal Communities

Summary: A transformative concept under the UN Ocean Decade has been developed by the endorsed Program “CoastPredict: Observing and Predicting the Global Coastal Ocean” (CoastPredict.org). The concept is that reliable predictions of coastal hazards and climate change effects must take into account both the effects of the open ocean and the inland impacts, especially in urban environments where the socioeconomic and human health implications are amplified. In addition, solutions must be co-designed with stakeholders, so that appropriate forecasting systems are put in place to drive management and policy through real-time delivery of predictions and the development of customized climate scenarios. The ocean shot “ICOFS: Integrated Coastal Ocean Forecast Systems” was submitted to the OceanDecade.US (https://www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/us-national-committee-on-ocean-science-for-sustainable-development-2021-2030/ocean-shot-directory) that describes the application of this idea and the international partnerships through the UN Decade that can advance the concept in US coastal waters (ocean shot presentation at https://vimeo.com/514038194). A national priority for coastal communities should include: a) seamless integration of open-sea to coastal to inland waters with downscaling of climate predictions around diverse coastal environments, with emphasis on low-land coastal cities (eg., Miami/proximity to Gulf Stream; New Orleans/proximity to Mississippi Delta; Seattle/proximity to Columbia estuary etc.); b) the trans-disciplinary integration of environmental, socioeconomic, urban and human health data, predictive models and products, for a holistic approach to coastal resilience that includes environmental justice for coastal communities. This priority would address urgent problems on climate related adaptation/mitigation actions in urban coastal environments which currently: a) employ generalized, global climate predictions that are not necessarily representative of the specific local topology of the coastal area that is being managed, with crucial implications on community preparedness and possible waste of infrastructure funds; b) do not connect coastal environmental to urban socioeconomic characteristics, with possible adverse mitigation effects (eg. gentrification based on unreliable sea level rise predictions for different coastal city neighborhoods and related real estate and insurance pricing). Impact: the proposed priority will provide an urgently needed tool for policy and management and drive the development of trans-disciplinary, science-based metrics and co-designed solutions with major societal, economic and human health benefits, which will be developed nationally (with international partnerships and best practices) and applied locally.

Sector: Academia
Organization: University of Miami
POC: Villy Kourafalou, vkourafalou@miami.edu