Fire weather tools

As the nation’s lead federal weather and climate agency, NOAA has a vast surface weather observation network, a fleet of geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites, along with a host of weather and climate models and predictive tools that provide information vital for wildfire planning, response and recovery.

Before the fire

The monthly precipitation outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center for May 2022

Seasonal prediction and long-lead outlooks

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center offers a range of subseasonal and seasonal forecasts and long-lead outlooks that preview temperature and precipitation trends that can establish conditions conducive for enhanced fire risk. CPC also tracks El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO,” which trigger predictable disruptions of temperature and precipitation that can enhance fire risk.

The Climate Prediction Center released the seasonal drought outlook for the contiguous US on May 19, 2002

Drought tools

Drought often sets the stage for fires. NOAA research has produced experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tools such as EDDl and LERI which visually depict current atmospheric conditions that lead to dryness and drought over a period of weeks to months. Drought.gov, NOAA’s drought portal, aggregates drought observations and impacts from multi-agency partnerships that coordinate monitoring, forecasting, planning, and information at national, tribal, state and local levels.

The Storm Prediction Center's 2-day fire weather outlook for May 18, 2022

Weather forecast products

NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Prediction operates a suite of numerical weather prediction models that provide officials and fire managers with actionable information on how climate and weather will influence fire risk, fire behavior and smoke impacts. They include: high resolution rapid refreshing forecasts, for changes in temperature, humidity, wind, lightning, and precipitation; mid-range forecasts to aid in planning at the scale of days to a week, and detailed on-site weather forecasts at wildfire incident command posts for tactical decision support. The National Weather Service provides fire weather forecasts as  as well as vital public safety information.

During the fire

IMET Lisa Kriederman uses a portable weather station to gather observations to support wildfire suppression at the Pine Gulch Fire north of Grand Junction, CO, August 2020. In addition to fire suppression forecasts, IMETs issue timely site-specific forecasts of weather conditions possibly hazardous to crews on the fire line. Weather fronts can change wind speed and direction; dry thunderstorms can cause downbursts, erratic wind conditions and dangerous lightning that can cause additional fires. Wind, humidi
On-Demand forecasts & IMETS

NOAA’s National Weather Service provides forecast advice and interpretative services on demand to help core partners, such as emergency personnel and public safety officials, make decisions when high-impact weather events like wildfires threaten lives and property. Specially trained Incident Meteorologists or IMETS, are ready for deployment to wildfire command centers to generate real-time fire weather forecasts to support tactical firefighting decisions.

map showing locations of active fires throughout the United States, on the US-Canadian border and in Mexico
Satellite products

NOAA Satellites monitor wildfires, as well as a number of weather and climatic conditions that enhance fire risk  from space and will continue to do so for decades to come. The GOES-R Series Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), available on GOES-16,  GOES-17, and GOES-18, will also fly on GOES-U, providing rapidly updating information about wildfires through the 2030s. The JPSS Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), available on the Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 polar orbiting satellites, will also be available on JPSS-2, -3, and -4, providing very high resolution images of wildfires through the 2030s.

NOAA's HRRR-Smoke model ingests satellite data into a high-resolution weather model to predict where smoke from a wildfire will travel for the next 48 hours.
Smoke and air chemistry models

The HRRR-Smoke, RAP-Smoke and NAQFC models simulate the emissions and transport of smoke from wildfires and predict the impact of smoke on the weather, air quality and visibility. Using the most recent weather observations and information about fires detected by polar-orbiting satellites during the previous 24 hours, these models calculate a fire’s size and couple that information with weather simulations from their parent weather models to produce forecasts of near-surface smoke, smoke aloft and in the case of NAQFC, the smoke’s impact on downwind ground-level ozone. The U. S. Forest Service uses NOAA's HYSPLIT model in its BlueSky smoke modeling tool to assess planned prescribed burns. 

After the fire

This map depicts the burn scar of the Hayden Pass fire in southern Colorado.
High-resolution storm forecasts and nowcasts

The fire may be out, but for many years, communities below a burn scar face increased flooding threats. NWS forecasters closely monitor burn scars, using high-resolution weather models, Doppler radar, and their knowledge of local terrain to identify when even modest rain storms could produce a flooding threat.

Flooded homes along the Russian River in California. NOAA scientists and colleagues are installing the first of four permanent "atmospheric river observatories" in California this month, to better monitor and predict the impacts of powerful winter storms associated with atmospheric rivers
Next-generation flood warning systems

NOAA researchers are building a state-of-the-art precipitation and flood forecasting system for California’s Bay Area that mates a new radar network to high-resolution weather and flood prediction systems to improve lead times for officials dealing with extreme storms like atmospheric rivers.